10-Year Treasury Note Seasonal Tendency
Also: Treasury Note Seasonal, 10-Year Note Seasonal
Visual Context Required
This concept requires chart visuals for full understanding.
The 10-year Treasury note futures price follows a dominant two-phase annual seasonal cycle: a January–February high trades down into a June–July low (bearish first half), then the contract rallies from the June–July low through December (bullish second half). When this seasonal is in effect and the Dollar Index moves in the expected inverse direction, a trending environment is likely for currency pairs. When Treasury prices and the Dollar Index move in tandem (same direction), the market is expected to be in a large consolidation, favouring range-bound price action and stop raids over directional position trades.
Identification4
- January–February seasonal high forms on the 10-year Treasury futures contract
- June–July seasonal low forms (last week of May through first week of July)
- Contract rallies from June–July low through end of year
- Confirmed by Dollar Index moving inversely (Dollar declining as Treasury rallies)
Invalidation2
- Dollar Index moves in tandem (same direction) with Treasury prices — signals consolidation, not trend
- Major macro or geopolitical event overrides the seasonal (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, Trump election 2016)
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- When seasonal is in effect with Dollar confirmation, position trades lasting several months are favoured
- When seasonal is absent or contradicted by Dollar action, focus on short-term day trades and stop raids rather than long-term positions
- Seasonal tendency for March contract creates a high at contract open; influences November high for that delivery month
ICT Quotes
"There's two primary or dominant cycles in the seasonal for Treasury notes. And it's bearish for the first half of the year and then bullish for the second part of the year."
"If the 10 year Treasury notes seasonal tendency is in effect, you see it happening, and it's supported with the contrary price action you see in the dollar index as we described here, if they are not showing that, chances are we're gonna be in a range bound consolidation."
"When we see 10 year Treasury notes moving in trending environments, that's going to put the dollar index into a trending environment."
Timeframes
Version History1 version
44-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - Using 10 Year Notes In HTF Analysis.srt
"Treasury prices are inverted to its yield. As Treasury prices drop, that means the futures contract for the 10 year Treasury notes. When that price drops on the chart that shows a treasury yields incr…"
Initial definition from January 2017 mentorship lesson 2.1
Notes
Charting tool: bar chart.com for Treasury futures prices; investing.com for 10-year Treasury yields. Ticker symbol for 10-year Treasury note futures: ZN. The seasonal tendency data used covers the full contract delivery cycle (March, June, September, December). Dollar Index seasonal tendency shows complementary inverse behaviour: January–February rally, June–July high, year-end decline.
Asymmetry Notes
Bullish seasonal is June–July low to year-end. Bearish seasonal is January–February high to June–July low. The November high applies specifically to March delivery contract. When seasonal is absent as a buy signal in June–July, attention shifts to the bearish November seasonal high instead.