Daily Bias Framework (2022 Systematic Process)
Also: daily bias, session bias, daily directional bias, pre-session analysis, weekly-to-daily bias
The Daily Bias Framework is the systematic four-step process ICT uses to determine which direction to trade each day and when. The steps are: (1) Weekly Chart First — assess the weekly range expansion direction; determine whether price is likely to expand higher or lower for the current week based on HTF structure and PD arrays. ICT states "Every day bias is unrealistic" — meaning a precise daily directional call is not the goal; instead, the goal is the LIKELY WEEKLY EXPANSION direction. (2) Economic Calendar — identify any high-impact or medium-impact news events scheduled; these events define the likely timing of directional moves and override the kill zone timing when relevant. (3) Kill Zone Setup — identify which kill zone (London open, New York open, London close) aligns with the expected expansion; this is where the trade setup is expected to form. (4) Model Entry — apply the ICT 2022 model entry (FVG + order block + SMT divergence + displacement) within the identified kill zone and direction. Additionally: the London Close (10:00–11:00 AM NY) represents when approximately 80% of the directional position should be off — this window typically creates the opposing end of the daily range.
Identification5
- Step 1 — Weekly chart: determine whether the weekly candle is likely to expand higher (bullish bias) or lower (bearish bias). Look at weekly structure: is price making higher highs/lows (bullish) or lower highs/lows (bearish)? Where is the weekly PD array draw?
- Step 2 — Economic calendar: check for high-impact news (CPI, FOMC, NFP, GDP) and medium-impact news. High-impact news defines the timing of the day's move and may override normal kill zone expectations.
- Step 3 — Kill zone: identify the AM session (9:30–11:30 AM) or PM session (1:30–3:30 PM) that aligns with the weekly bias and economic calendar timing.
- Step 4 — Model entry: within the identified kill zone and direction, look for the 2022 ICT model entry: SMT divergence confirmation + Judas Swing completion + displacement FVG + order block alignment.
- London Close rule: target having 80% of positions closed between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM NY time — this window typically marks the formation of the opposing end of the daily range.
Entry1
- Entry is the output of Step 4 (model entry) within the confirmed kill zone window.
Target2
- Intraday: liquidity pool at the opposing end of the daily range — typically found by London Close (10:00–11:00 AM).
- Weekly: the weekly expansion target identified in Step 1.
Invalidation2
- The weekly expansion goes against the bias determined in Step 1 — the daily bias must be updated immediately.
- High-impact news creates a directional move at an unexpected time — the kill zone timing for entry shifts.
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- ICT's explicit statement 'Every day bias is unrealistic' signals that the daily bias is probabilistic and directional, not a precise call — the trader is betting on the WEEKLY direction manifesting through a specific intraday window.
- The Risk-On/Risk-Off macro filter applies at Step 1: dollar down = risk on (ES/NQ bullish); dollar up = risk off (ES/NQ bearish). Dollar-CAD is the preferred proxy when it has high-impact news.
- The London Close 80% exit rule is distinct from the kill zone entry setup — it is a profit management rule that applies after the AM session trade is in progress.
ICT Quotes
"Every day bias is unrealistic… I'm trying to determine the likely weekly expansion"
"you want to have about 80% of your trade off between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock in the morning because usually…that's when it creates the opposing end of the daily range"
"lower dollar CAD, higher SMP"
Timeframes
Version History2 versions
ICT YT - 2022-06-22 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 40.srt
""Every day bias is unrealistic… I'm trying to determine the likely weekly expansion. Weekly chart first → economic calendar for timing → kill zone setup → model entry." "you want to have about 80% of …"
Episode 40 provides the most explicit systematic formulation of the daily bias process as a four-step workflow. The London Close 80% exit rule is also stated here as an explicit percentage guideline (not previously quantified this precisely in earlier 2022 episodes).
ICT YT - 2024-04-29 - How To Read Price With Or Without A Bias - Day 1 of 3.srt
"I'm going to show you what it is I'm looking at before 830. And then what I'm looking for or what I'm anticipating between 830 and 930, when the equities market opens up... whether there's a bias that…"
2024 MAJOR EXPANSION — "Reading Price With or Without a Bias" 3-day workshop (April 29–May 1, 2024). ICT introduces a formal framework for trading WITHOUT a daily directional bias. Key additions: (1) SEASONAL TENDENCY as the highest-order bias filter — spring highs and fall lows are the two most reliable annual bias anchors; both the short-term and long-term Steve Moore seasonal tendency lines must agree. (2) ECONOMIC CALENDAR as the second filter — high-impact news week (NFP, FOMC, CPI) = abandon daily bias; trade only intraday session liquidity. (3) WITHOUT BIAS mode: when calendar is loaded with high-impact drivers, use session-by-session draw-on-liquidity (morning session, lunch macro, PM session, final hour) rather than a daily directional thesis. (4) Hierarchy of contexts for bias: annual seasonal tendency → quarterly shift → weekly range profile → daily PD array draw on liquidity → session bias. This expansion is the formal 2024 teaching on how/when to abandon daily bias entirely and operate as a pure intraday liquidity-reader without directional commitment. See also: time-macros (lunch macro), seek-and-destroy-profile.
Notes
The daily bias framework is the meta-process that governs all trade selection in the 2022 ICT model. Steps 1–3 define CONTEXT and TIMING; Step 4 defines the ENTRY. Without the first three steps, the model entry (Step 4) is being applied without context and becomes low-probability. The London Close 80% exit rule is a practical profit management instruction: by 10:00–11:00 AM NY time, the AM session move is typically complete. Holding through London Close risks giving back profits in the midday chop. The 80% figure gives the trader permission to exit most of the position while leaving a runner if desired. Risk-On/Risk-Off proxy: when USD/CAD has high-impact news that day, it is ICT's preferred macro confirmation tool — if CAD strengthens (USD/CAD falls), that is risk-on and supports ES/NQ bullish bias. Related concepts: narrative.yaml, judas-swing.yaml, smt-divergence-index.yaml, london-close-killzone.yaml, new-york-killzone.yaml, london-killzone.yaml
Asymmetry Notes
Symmetrical: the four-step process is the same for bullish bias (expecting weekly expansion higher, look for long setups in kill zones) and bearish bias (expecting weekly expansion lower, look for short setups in kill zones).