Daily Range Projection (CBDR Standard Deviation Method)
Also: Daily High/Low Projection, CBDR Projection, Standard Deviation Daily Projection, Projecting Daily Highs and Lows
Visual Context Required
This concept requires chart visuals for full understanding.
A methodology for projecting the daily high (on sell days) or daily low (on buy days) using the Central Bank Dealers Range (CBDR) as the standard deviation unit. The CBDR pip range (measured body-to-body between 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM NY) is replicated as multiples (standard deviations) above the CBDR high for sell-day projections or below the CBDR low for buy-day projections. The number of standard deviations the protractionary (Judas swing) phase travels during London also reveals the projected target for the expansion move: the same total standard deviation count is then applied in the opposite direction from the London extreme to derive the projected daily range target. ICT calls this the "science behind IPDA calling the daily high and low."
Identification7
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- Directional bias must be established from daily chart PD array analysis
- Step 1 — Measure CBDR: calculate the pip range of the CBDR using candle bodies (highest open/close to lowest open/close between 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM NY)
- Step 2 — Project Judas swing levels: add 1, 2, and 3 CBDR ranges above CBDR high (sell day) or subtract 1, 2, and 3 CBDR ranges below CBDR low (buy day) — these are the projected London highs/lows
- Step 3 — Observe actual Judas swing: count how many CBDR standard deviations the London projectionay phase (Judas swing) actually traveled
- Step 4 — Project expansion target: take the total number of standard deviations used in the Judas swing + 1 (for the CBDR itself) and apply that total count in the opposite direction from the London extreme — this is the projected daily range low (sell day) or high (buy day)
- Confirm the projected level aligns with a higher-timeframe PD array for maximum precision
Entry3
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- The projected level is a target, not a guarantee — price may stop one PD array short of the projection
Stop1
- Consistent with London Kill Zone trade stop rules
Target3
- Use the total standard deviation count from the Judas swing as the multiplier for the expansion target
- Example: if price traveled 2 standard deviations above CBDR to make the sell-day high, then 2 + 1 (for CBDR) = 3 standard deviations projected below the London high = expansion target low
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Invalidation3
- CBDR greater than 40 pips — do not use this projection method for that day
- No directional bias established — projections without bias are meaningless
- If the projected level does not overlap with a logical PD array, confidence in the projection is reduced
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- ICT called this projection methodology "mind boggling" in precision and considered it proprietary information not to be shared publicly
- The projection is not exact — it gives a range or zone to look for the daily extreme, not a precise pip level
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- PD arrays always override the standard deviation projection — "the PD arrays call the shot, not the projection"
- When two projections both overlap with a PD array, that convergence is the highest-confidence target
- The precision of entries (at the Judas swing level) is higher than the precision of exits (at the expansion target)
ICT Quotes
"This is the science, if you will, behind IPAA, calling the daily high and low. Please, please understand that this is something that should not be out there on YouTube."
"So again, in summary, we're taking the total range used of all the standard deviations, 123, counting central bank dealers range always. So we have three of them. So we get a mock up of that range, and then projected from the low one cell days, it's 123 and gives you the IPAA projected daily range low."
"When we have the standard deviation arrived at based on a PD array, in other words, we're looking at a premium PD array, there's shorter block price and a daily premium hits it in London have a processionary state in the marketplace due to swing in London goes right to the PIP and trades lower."
"these projections will lead you to an overlap of time and price. So we're looking at the extension of the range, two standard deviations, measure that projected above from the eight, consolidation of the central bank dealers range Hi... it's the PD raises that call the shot."
Timeframes
Version History1 version
76-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 8 - Projecting Daily Highs and Lows.srt
""projecting daily highs and lows... ideal scenarios are going to be seen with no more than two standard deviations. Usually, it's about the bulk of buying sell days, you'll see price go down many time…"
First detailed presentation of the CBDR standard deviation projection methodology for daily highs and lows
Notes
Definition requires visual context: the methodology involves drawing standard deviation boxes on a chart and visually identifying which PD arrays overlap with the projection levels. The standard deviation count (1, 2, 3) for the Judas swing is observed from the chart in real time. ICT's example in file 76 showed he was one pip off the projected weekly high and one pip off the projected daily low on the examples discussed — these near-perfect projections are the product of CBDR alignment with PD arrays, not mechanical formula alone. ICT explicitly states the projection is the tool and the PD array is the ultimate confirmer.
Asymmetry Notes
Symmetrical — same projection methodology for buy days (projections below CBDR low) and sell days (projections above CBDR high). The count direction and application direction invert.