Ideal Seasonal Tendency
Also: Ideal Seasonal, Highest Probability Seasonal
Visual Context Required
This concept requires chart visuals for full understanding.
An ideal seasonal tendency is the highest-probability seasonal window for a given forex pair, identified by comparing the futures seasonal tendency chart of the base currency against the US Dollar Index seasonal tendency chart and finding the time of year where the two are most diametrically opposed in direction. When the base currency futures seasonal and the Dollar Index seasonal move in maximally opposite directions simultaneously, this constitutes the ideal seasonal scenario: the strongest historical alignment for a sustained directional move in that pair. This ideal scenario is most effective when (a) the underlying HTF market structure for the pair is already in a primary trend agreeing with the seasonal direction, or (b) a long-term low or high has just formed and the seasonal tendency supports the expected directional move out of that level.
Identification4
- Locate base currency futures seasonal tendency chart and Dollar Index seasonal tendency chart side by side
- Identify the calendar period where both charts show the most pronounced and opposite directional movement simultaneously
- Confirm pair's primary HTF market structure agrees with the seasonal bias direction
- A long-term turning point (HTF low for bull bias, HTF high for bear bias) formed recently is an additional qualifier
Invalidation2
- Base currency seasonal and Dollar Index seasonal are not clearly opposed — no ideal seasonal; use general seasonal tendency only
- Primary HTF market structure contradicts the seasonal — seasonal deprioritised
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- Even without the ideal scenario (only one of the two seasonals present), a trade can still be taken with one confirming seasonal; two is the ideal
- In a long-term consolidation, only one seasonal may be visible; trade the pair with the stronger seasonal tendency rather than forcing both
ICT Quotes
"What we're actually looking at is we're comparing the two seasonal tendency charts, we're looking for the most diametrically opposed price action between the two. So when we're focusing on high probability, or in my definition, an ideal seasonal tendency is when the underlying market is predisposed to go in a direction that seasonal tendency is being outlined."
"In an ideal scenario, this trade would be best suited to be found on a long term primary bullish market. Or if we made a long term low, we could potentially test this theory in terms of catching a long term trade."
Timeframes
Version History1 version
50-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - Ideal Seasonal Tendencies.srt
"This is going to be specifically dealing with foreign exchange or FX pairs. The ideal seasonal tendencies, what we're actually looking at is we're comparing the two seasonal tendency charts, we're loo…"
Initial definition from January 2017 mentorship lesson 4.3
Notes
The lesson references all major forex pairs (AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, USD/CAD). ICT emphasises this list is not exhaustive for trading opportunities each year — only some pairs will offer the ideal scenario in any given year. These seasonal tendency periods should be entered on a trading calendar and reviewed daily. ICT notes these concepts will be revisited in later swing trading and short-term trading modules.
Asymmetry Notes
Per-pair ideal seasonal windows (from lesson 4.3): AUD/USD: March–May (AUD futures bullish; Dollar Index declining — diametrically opposed). NZD/USD: March–May (same structure as AUD/USD). EUR/USD: June–July seasonal low in EUR futures, Dollar Index high — ideal buy scenario for EUR from summer low. GBP/USD: March–April seasonal low in GBP futures with high forming in May; Dollar Index high in March–April declining to May low. USD/CHF: June–July Dollar Index seasonal high; CHF futures seasonal low — ideal for USD/CHF long or CHF short. USD/JPY: March–April Dollar Index seasonal high declining into May; JPY futures seasonal low in March–April — ideal for USD/JPY short or JPY long. USD/CAD: March–April Dollar Index seasonal high declining into May; CAD futures seasonal low in March–April (high in May) — ideal for USD/CAD short.