London Session Avoidance Conditions
Also: When To Avoid London, London Avoidance Rules, London Session Filter
A rule-based filter set that determines when the London Open Kill Zone should be avoided entirely. The conditions identify when statistical edge is insufficient for day trading London regardless of directional bias. The primary avoidance signals are: (1) prior day was a large range day (>2x the 5-day ADR), (2) three or more consecutive up or down closes on the daily chart, (3) post-FOMC extreme whipsaw on the prior day, (4) Non-Farm Payroll Friday, (5) day heading into a holiday or long weekend, (6) multiple high/ medium-impact news events scheduled for the London session, (7) CBDR greater than 50 pips, (8) CBDR and/or Asian range are trending rather than consolidating, and (9) a sustained rally or decline beginning from 8:00 PM NY (zero GMT) that carries through the night. When these conditions are present, the preferred action is to sleep and trade New York instead.
Identification10
- Avoid Condition 1: Prior trading day had a range greater than 2x the 5-day average daily range — typically followed by consolidation
- Avoid Condition 2: Three or more consecutive up closes on the daily chart — avoid trading London longs; reversal risk on the 4th day
- Avoid Condition 3: Three or more consecutive down closes on the daily chart — avoid trading London shorts; reversal or consolidation risk on the 4th day
- Avoid Condition 4: FOMC event that produced extreme whipsaw price action — the whipsaw disrupts the CBDR and rolls into Asian session
- Avoid Condition 5: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Friday — typically the first Friday of each calendar month; do not trade London on this day
- Avoid Condition 6: Trading day that heads into a long weekend or public holiday — traders exit early, liquidity is thin
- Avoid Condition 7: Multiple high-impact or medium-impact news events scheduled during the London session for the pair being traded — creates unpredictable manipulation cycles
- Avoid Condition 8 (CBDR-based): CBDR greater than 50 pips — strong signal to skip London. CBDR 40–50 pips — conditional; check if Asian range compensates with 20–30 pip consolidation
- Avoid Condition 9: CBDR and/or Asian range is trending, wide, or erratic rather than in tight narrow consolidation — signals that the big move already started at zero GMT and there is no London float to release
- Avoid Condition 10: Market begins a sustained rally or decline from 8:00 PM NY (zero GMT) and carries it through the Asian session — London Open will be sloppy with little retracement; sleep and trade New York
Invalidation2
- These are not tradeable patterns — they are filter/avoidance rules that prevent participation
- Even if all avoidance conditions are absent, the London normal or delayed protraction profile must still materialize to take a trade
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- Absence of news during London can be a wildcard (either very clean technical day or unexpected spike); treat with caution but not automatic avoidance
- If conditions signal avoidance but the trader still wants to observe, use very minimal risk or demo only
- Presence of any avoidance condition does not guarantee a losing trade — it means the statistical edge is insufficient to warrant risk
- The ideal London day has ONE high-impact or medium-impact news event (single manipulation cycle), not multiple competing events
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ICT Quotes
"typically after a large range day, which is greater than two times the average five day range... that is a day that you do not want to trade immediately the day after."
"after a series of three consecutive up closes on a daily chart, you want to avoid trading longs, at least in London in session"
"just avoid trading London Open after FOMC events that create whipsaw. Ahead of Non Farm Payroll numbers... same trading day, that's heading into a long weekend or a holiday. That day, we avoid trading London as well"
"If the market starts to sustain rally or decline from 8pm New York, that's usually a poor indication of a London session. That means that the real event is started at zero GMT, and they're probably gonna keep a sustained move going through and very little retracement"
"central bank dealers range and or Asian range must trade down into a small tight consolidation range. If we don't see that, if it's trending in both or either or it makes the london session highly suspect."
"When the market is conditioned for London slop as we just described in the previous point, sleep in trade New York."
"you do not trade every single trading day. These conditions will prevent you from taking positions in money. And you have to accept it."
Timeframes
Version History1 version
78-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 8 - When To Avoid The London Session.srt
""this lesson is going to be completely void of any charts, any kind of examples, any kind of distractions, because I want you to think about the characteristics that I'm outlining here.""
Deliberate chart-free lesson format to force memorization of the rules
Notes
ICT deliberately presented this lesson with no charts, requiring students to internalize the rules as a mental checklist. He explicitly states: "I'm going to leave it up to you to have this created as a checklist. I'm not going to give you a checklist that has this stuff, because I want you to write it in your own handwriting." The lesson is presented as equally important as the entry profile lessons (lesson 5), because avoiding bad trading days is as valuable as finding good ones. ICT's framework: if you trade every single day, your largest winning day is likely being used to recover losses from bad days — eliminating bad days through avoidance rules creates a smoother equity curve.
Asymmetry Notes
Avoidance conditions 2 and 3 are direction-specific: consecutive up closes → avoid London longs; consecutive down closes → avoid London shorts. All other avoidance conditions are symmetrical.