x10hop

Position Trade Management (Long-Term Trailing Stop Framework)

Also: long-term trade management, 40-day trailing stop, quarterly shift management

Risk Management high symmetrical

A trailing stop-loss framework for long-term (quarterly shift) positions executed on the daily chart. The methodology uses IPDA data-range lookbacks to determine stop placement rather than chart-structure-only stops. During the first half of an anticipated range move, the stop is trailed behind the lowest low of the last 40 trading days (bullish) or above the highest high of the last 40 trading days (bearish). Once the trade has traveled approximately 50% of the expected range, the lookback tightens to 20 trading days. The 40-day and 20-day thresholds are derived from the IPDA (Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm) data ranges, which define where the algorithm will seek liquidity. At 75–100% of range completion, the 20-day trail becomes the final protective floor/ceiling before the monthly/weekly objective is reached. Maximum risk per trade: 1% of account capital regardless of stop width.

First seen: 2016 Updated: 2017
Identification3
  • Trade is entered on daily timeframe using stop-entry or limit-entry technique after higher-timeframe (monthly/weekly) PD array context is confirmed.
  • [object Object]
  • A defined monthly or weekly range target (premium or discount PD array) has been identified in advance.
Entry1
  • Same as stop-entry-technique or limit-entry-technique on daily timeframe.
Stop5
  • Phase 1 (0–50% of expected range): Trail stop below lowest low of last 40 trading days (bullish) or above highest high of last 40 trading days (bearish). Update daily.
  • Phase 2 (50–75% of expected range): Continue using 40-day lookback.
  • Phase 3 (75–100% of expected range): Tighten to lowest low of last 20 trading days (bullish) or highest high of last 20 trading days (bearish).
  • Do not move stop to break-even — ICT explicitly warns this is the worst practice in long-term trading.
  • Stops may be hundreds of pips wide; this is expected and intentional for the timeframe.
Target3
  • Monthly or weekly premium PD array (for longs); monthly or weekly discount PD array (for shorts).
  • Partial profits recommended at intermediate daily PD arrays or at 50% of range; residual position held to full objective.
  • Multiple re-entries possible using the same opening price if price retraces to prior entry candle levels.
Invalidation3
  • Price breaches the 40-day lookback stop (pre-50% range) — position is stopped out.
  • Price breaches the 20-day lookback stop (post-50% range) — position exits with profit.
  • Monthly/weekly PD array (target) is reached — trade is closed or heavily scaled.

Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)

  • The 40-day lookback is used because if the trade is valid, the market should be reaching for the 40-day highs (bearish) or not return to the 40-day lows (bullish); the algorithm avoids revisiting that far back.
  • This framework is designed to prevent premature stop-outs that are common when traders use intraday or tight percentage stops on daily/weekly positions.
  • Inter-market analysis (interest rate divergence, bond market, COT commercials, correlated pairs) is the prerequisite filter before any entry.

ICT Quotes

"You're gonna be trailing your stop loss below the lowest low in the last 40 trading days. Now, this brings us back to the IP to data range. Why are we looking for the lowest level last 40 trading days because if we're looking for a bullish move, the market will most likely not want to go back 40 trading days to find a low."

00:06:01|56-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - Position Trade Management.srt

"Once that range moves to 50% of what you expect to see in terms of profitability... your stop loss is going to be below that. But when we get above 50%, then we're going to be looking for the lowest low in the last 20 days, once we get about three quarters of the way of the tire weekly monthly range."

00:07:53|56-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - Position Trade Management.srt

"Breakeven on long term trading is just the worst thing that possibly you ever consider. You don't want to do that."

00:13:23|56-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - Position Trade Management.srt

Timeframes

dailyweeklymonthly
Version History1 version
201700:00:15

56-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - Position Trade Management.srt

"For bullish market conditions, we like to anticipate potential bullish seasonal tendencies... We're gonna be focusing on a daily chart for a quarterly shift or intermediate price swing, every three or…"

Initial definition in January 2017 content (Month 5, Lesson 8).

Notes

This concept is directly coupled with the IPDA data range (20/40/60-day lookbacks). The position management framework is presented as part of the 'quarterly shift' long-term model. See also: ipda-data-range, stop-entry-technique, limit-entry-technique.

Asymmetry Notes

Symmetrical — bullish uses lowest low lookback; bearish uses highest high lookback. Same phase thresholds (50%, 75%) apply.