Power Three (Open, Rally/Decline, Close)
Also: Power 3, AMD (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution), Weekly Judas Swing, Open Rally Close
Visual Context Required
This concept requires chart visuals for full understanding.
The fundamental three-phase price delivery model that describes how IPDA structures price across any timeframe. The three phases are: (1) Open — price establishes its reference level at the beginning of the period; (2) Rally or Decline (the protractionary/Judas swing phase) — price moves in the opposite direction of the intended close to create a false move, stop out premature positions, and accumulate orders at the extreme; (3) Close — price expands in the true direction of the period, closing at the opposing extreme from the open. For a bullish period: open near the low, small wick below open (Judas swing down), then expansion up to close near the high. For a bearish period: open near the high, small wick above open (Judas swing up), then expansion down to close near the low. Power Three applies fractally to weekly candles, daily candles, and intraday sessions.
Identification6
- Identify the opening price of the period (Sunday/Monday open for weekly, midnight NY or zero GMT for daily intraday)
- Bullish period: open near the low → small move below open (Judas swing, projectionay phase) → expansion close near the high
- Bearish period: open near the high → small move above open (Judas swing, projectionay phase) → expansion close near the low
- Weekly candles with a large body have the open and close at opposing ends — these are the highest-value range candles
- The protractionary phase (Judas swing) is typically 20–33 pips on a daily candle (one-third of the ~100 pip average daily range)
- The projectionay phase should not exceed 40 pips or the Power Three template becomes disrupted
Entry3
- Bullish day trade: buy at or near the opening price (zero GMT) or below it (10–20 pips below zero GMT as a limit order) — this positions in the Judas swing phase ahead of the expansion move
- Bearish day trade: sell at or near the opening price (zero GMT) or above it (10–20 pips above zero GMT as a limit order) — this positions in the Judas swing phase ahead of the expansion decline
- HTF integration: buy zero GMT open using 5-day ADR as protective stop for swing/position trades; sell zero GMT open + 5-day ADR as stop for bearish HTF trades
Stop2
- When integrating with HTF setups: use the 5-day average daily range subtracted from the zero GMT open (for longs) or added to it (for shorts) as the protective stop — typically 60–100 pips
- This large stop is acceptable because the trade is targeting a multi-hundred-pip HTF move
Target3
- Daily Power Three: the opposing extreme of the daily range; scale using CBDR and Asian range standard deviations
- Weekly Power Three: the projected weekly high or low using IPDA data ranges and PD array matrix (OSOK framework)
- HTF integration: hold to the next premium or discount PD array on the daily chart
Invalidation3
- Open and close are at similar levels (doji or inside bar) — Power Three pattern is not expressing
- Protractionary phase exceeds 40 pips from the opening — suggests a different daily template (not a clean Power Three)
- The weekly range closes against the direction of the Power Three expectation
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- Power Three is fractal — it applies to the weekly candle (Sunday open to Friday close), the daily candle (midnight NY to 3 PM NY), and intraday sessions
- The zero GMT opening price (approximately 7–8 PM NY depending on season) is the daily Power Three reference used when ICT cannot trade London
- The expectation that the bullish daily candle will NOT decline more than 33 pips below zero GMT (and ideally only 20–30 pips) is the theoretical foundation for CBDR standard deviation projections
- Large-body weekly candles (open near one extreme, close near the other) are the ideal conditions for OSOK setups
- Small-body weekly candles (wick high and wick low with small body) are challenging and not ideal for OSOK
- The "weekly Judas swing" referenced in file 72 is the weekly application of the Power Three concept
ICT Quotes
"power three, the open the rally or decline and then Close. Obviously, for an up close day or bullish day, we would see the open near the low of the day, a small little wick below the opening price and expansion move or range expansion up, then a close, that typically closes just a little bit off the high of the day."
"the initial rally here we saw on Monday was a false rally, all that was was heavy selling they engineered price higher, built in a premium, so they can sell it to the smart or lower, intelligent crowd."
"for power three concept to unfold if we're bullish, we're looking for the opening price in the market to trade down 20 to 30 pips, ideally no more than 33 pips. If it trades beyond that, we don't want to see it trade more than 40 pips"
"the open at midnight, small little down move in the Asian range, we would not be concerned with that. The up move on the Asian range, resistance being broken out. The high of the day forms right at the beginning of the ICT London kill zone that begins at 1am New York time."
Timeframes
Version History5 versions
72-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 7 - One Shot One Kill Model.srt
""The power three concept apply to weekly candles or ranges.""
Referenced as prerequisite concept from prior ICT free tutorials, used in OSOK weekly range framework
80-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 8 - Integrating Daytrades With HTF Trade Entries.srt
""we're gonna be revisiting power three. And we're gonna be talking specifically with day trade entries and higher timeframe setups.""
Power Three applied to daily candle and zero GMT opening price for HTF trade integration — adds the zero GMT entry methodology
ICT YT - 2022-02-18 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 10.srt
""Power of Three applied to index futures: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution. The market opens at midnight New York time — that's your AMD reference. For the morning session, 8:30 AM is your ope…"
2022 mentorship applies Power of Three (now labeled AMD — Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution) to ES/NQ/YM index futures. Key 2022 additions: (1) AMD labeling: the three phases are explicitly named Accumulation (A), Manipulation (B = Judas Swing), Distribution (C = true directional move). (2) Two opening price references introduced: midnight NY open (for full daily AMD range) and 8:30 AM NY (for morning session Opening Range). These are distinct reference prices serving different purposes. (3) Opening Range concept: distance from 8:30 AM to Judas Swing extreme, projected in opposite direction = accumulation/distribution zone. (4) Bearish Power Three day pattern (Ep 9): open → rally (Judas Swing accumulating shorts) → sell off → close near low. The rally leg IS the manipulation. (5) Overnight trading context: price can run during overnight session creating the AMD structure before the regular session even opens — the midnight reference anchor captures this. (6) The AMD framework is the same as the 2016–2017 Power Three but with more explicit labels and specific application to the index futures time structure.
ICT YT - 2024-08-19 - ICT 2024 Mentorship - Lecture 12.srt
"the power three, which is my solution to a conundrum that Larry Williams said he had, back in 1995... he said it was hard for him to be a buyer below the opening price when he was bullish. So he'd alw…"
2024 INTRADAY POWER THREE ANCHOR = 9:30am RTH open (not midnight). For day-trading applications, the Power Three reference price is the 9:30am RTH opening tick. Any movement below (bullish day) or above (bearish day) that opening price is the Judas swing / manipulation phase. The trend-following expansion is the distribution phase. ICT cites Larry Williams' struggle (buying below the open when bullish) as the problem Power Three solves — patience through the Judas swing phase to buy the discount.
ICT YT - 2022-06-03 - ICT Mentorship 2022 Episode 37.srt
""This formation of price action is what I dub my ICT power three, where it's accumulating, manipulating, distributing, so it's opening, create the low of the day, and then rally""
Episode 37 provides an explicit AMD walkthrough for a bullish day: Accumulation (open/reference price set), Manipulation (create the low of the day = Judas Swing down, trapping shorts), Distribution (rally = true directional move, distributing accumulated long contracts to buyers). No definitional change — this reinforces the Ep 10 AMD labeling and maps each phase to its specific intraday price action in a concrete bullish day example.
Notes
Power Three is one of ICT's foundational algorithmic concepts, referenced across all timeframes throughout the mentorship. Its daily application is directly related to the CBDR and Asian Range projection framework: the 20–33 pip ideal Judas swing below the opening (bullish day) is the theoretical basis for why the CBDR needs to be 20–30 pips (one-third of a 100-pip ADR). Definition requires visual context because the distinction between a "small wick" protraction versus a full-sized daily move opposite the close direction requires chart interpretation. 2022 AMD label update: The Accumulation/Manipulation/Distribution (AMD) labeling in the 2022 mentorship is equivalent to the Open/Rally-Decline/Close structure from 2016–2017. No material conflict — same concept, new labels for pedagogical clarity. 2022 key refinement — two opening references for index futures (Ep 10): - Midnight NY open: AMD reference for the full daily range (the "real" open) - 8:30 AM NY open: morning session reference for Opening Range measurement These are NOT interchangeable. The midnight open anchors the full day's Power of Three. The 8:30 AM open anchors the morning session Judas Swing / Opening Range calculation. See also: judas-swing.yaml, opening-range.yaml 2024 DAILY RANGE / POWER THREE FROM 9:30 AM (L10/L12, Aug 16/19 2024): In the 2024 mentorship ICT consistently frames the daily Power Three range for index futures as starting at the 9:30am RTH open (not midnight). "The daily range, starting at 930 here." (L12, 00:16:57). The Judas swing phase = price moving away from 9:30 open before the true directional expansion. This is used for day-trading purposes and for Caleb's beginner model. The midnight-anchor version from 2022 is for the full overnight AMD structure; the 9:30am version is the intraday day-trade version. Both are valid; the 9:30am anchor is the 2024 primary teaching frame for beginners (Caleb's model context). 2024 DAILY RANGE PERCENTAGE TARGETS (L10): ICT introduces percentage-based daily range targets in 2024: the day is considered "in play" when there is at least 20 handles of anticipated range. A 20–30% retracement of the weekly range is the TGIF expectation (if not delivered Friday, deferred to the following Monday). These are quantified versions of the qualitative guidance from prior years.
Asymmetry Notes
Symmetrical — same three-phase structure for both bullish (open low, wick below open, close high) and bearish (open high, wick above open, close low) periods.