Seasonal Tendency
Also: Seasonals, Seasonal Tendency Chart, 40-Year Seasonal
Visual Context Required
This concept requires chart visuals for full understanding.
A seasonal tendency is a statistically compiled directional roadmap derived from 15 to 40+ years of historical futures contract price data, showing the typical price direction for each contract delivery month (March, June, September, December for currencies) across a full calendar year. The data is compressed into a composite chart (blue line = long-period average, red line = shorter-period average). When both lines move in the same direction at a given time of year, a high-probability seasonal tendency exists for that period. Seasonal tendencies are not guarantees; they are probabilistic roadmaps that indicate which times of year a market has historically been predisposed to rally or decline. They are used as confluence with existing market bias, quarterly shift analysis, and intermarket confirmation — not as standalone signals. The seasonal tendency is for futures contract prices; for forex pairs where the USD is the base currency (e.g., USD/CAD), the futures seasonal direction must be inverted.
Identification4
- Both the long-period (blue) and short-period (red) lines on the seasonal tendency chart move in the same direction during the target time window
- The larger the price swing in both lines during the target period, the stronger the seasonal tendency
- Confirm the seasonal tendency direction against the prevailing higher timeframe market structure (bullish or bearish)
- For USD-base forex pairs (USD/CAD): invert the futures seasonal — a bearish futures seasonal = bullish USD/CAD seasonal
Invalidation3
- Both lines diverge or move in opposite directions — choppy/contradictory seasonal, low probability
- Macro wildcard event (financial crisis, geopolitical shock) overrides the seasonal regardless of historical consistency
- Seasonal tendency present but HTF market structure moving contrary — seasonal deprioritised in favour of structure
Inferred Conditions (Unvalidated)
- Bullish seasonal tendencies are most actionable when HTF market structure is already bullish (trending up)
- Bearish seasonal tendencies are most actionable when HTF market structure is already bearish (trending down)
- Bear seasonals can be used as guides leading into the next bullish quarterly shift — the decline sets up the buy
- Seasonal tendencies repeat in commodities as well (e.g., crude oil March–June bullish tendency)
- Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have seasonal tendencies correlated with their primary export commodity
ICT Quotes
"The seasonal tendencies are merely a proverbial roadmap of past performance. And they are not to be viewed as a panacea or a be all end all concept. Despite what you may see in this teaching... simply because it's done something in the past does that in any way guarantee is going to do the same thing in the future. This is just one more tool to add a confluence of things that would already lead you to an expectation that the market should go higher or lower."
"If there's something that's measured, and again, this is 40 years worth of data, okay, 40 years worth of data. In the blue line, the red line is a 15 year average. So you can see between looking at 40 years worth of data and 15 years worth of data, there's very little discrepancy in terms of what the overall strong seasonal tendencies are for this particular currency."
"Seasonal tendencies are absolutely a barnburner for delivering what you should be doing for each quarter of the year."
"We do not go into our charts forcing the seasonal tendency... But what I want you to focus on is that if this seasonal tendency is in fact true... The idea is, is there something technically in price that would support that seasonal tendency?"
"Seasonal tendencies tell us a specific time element that escapes most people that don't use them. Most traders don't even have any understanding these things exist."
Timeframes
Version History1 version
48-ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 5 - How To Use Bullish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis.srt
"We're gonna be teaching specifically only on the buy side for seasonal tendencies in this teaching. And we're using the Canadian dollar to begin with. And what this is, is it's a 40 year seasonal tend…"
Initial definition from January 2017 mentorship lessons 4.1, 4.2, 4.3
Notes
Seasonal tendency data covers 1976 onwards (40-year baseline) with a 15-year overlay for comparison. Data compiled through 2015 in the mentorship materials; ICT notes the output changes negligibly with newer data. Delivery months for currency futures: March, June, September, December. The seasonal tendency chart is structured by contract delivery month, not calendar month alone. Key practical instruction: write seasonal tendency dates on a physical trading calendar and review them daily before market analysis. ICT identifies crude oil as a leading correlate for Canadian dollar seasonal tendencies due to Canada's oil export relationship.
Asymmetry Notes
The bullish and bearish seasonal windows differ by instrument and delivery contract. Canadian dollar: bullish March–June (futures), bearish September–December (futures) → inverted for USD/CAD. New Zealand dollar (Kiwi): bearish mid-Feb to mid-March, bearish May; bullish March–April, June–July, September–October. Crude oil: bullish mid-February to June/July. See ideal-seasonal-tendency.yaml for per-pair ideal windows.